A Big Ol’ Bowl of Win

It wasn’t that long ago boys and girls that our swashbuckling GM, Rubes Jr., traded an ace away for a few middling prospects. Well, just when I think he couldn’t possibly be any dumber, he goes and does something like this…AND TOTALLY REDEEMS HIMSELF!!!

We all beat up GM’s from time to time whether it’s for signing players to bad contracts, trading away prospects we love for crappy rental players or for not making trades we really think they should make. If a move doesn’t pay off, we chastise them for it. If it does work, well, we focus on the players who made it happen. For the most part, it’s a rather thank-less job. But, I really have to hand it to Ruben here, he pulled off quite the coup in the Oswalt deal. It’s enough of a coup actually, that I almost, but not quite, will consider forgiving him for the Cliff Lee Fiasco of 2010.

But, alas, this isn't about Cliff Lee (actually everything is always about Cliff Lee, but I digress). It's about a pitcher named Roy and a dream. A dream to win another World Series and fleece Ed Wade in the process. Did the Phillies realize this dream today? Let's find out.


Here’s the official breakdown:

Phillies Get:

RHP Roy Oswalt

$11,000,000

Ed Wade’s Manhood

Astros Get:

LHP JA Happ

OF Anthony Gose (who was immediately sent to the Blue Jays for 1B Brett Wallace, who was dealt from Oakland to Toronto for ex-Phillies prospect Michael Taylor)

SS Jonathan Villar

If that seems almost too good to be true, it’s because it pretty much is. Considering the Phillies obtained a top 30 pitcher (which is what Oswalt still is) without giving up ANY top prospects (Gose is the closest at #6 per Baseball America) is unbelievable. It’s become apparent that the cost for a good starter (as proven last week as well in the Dan Haren trade) isn’t as high as fans thought. When only a few teams in baseball can afford to take on salary (like the Phillies somehow can) it really limits the number of options team looking to trade have. This, thankfully, dramatically lowered the cost for Oswalt. For most of the morning I heard a lot of names thrown around, but in the end all the top guys like Singleton, Colvin and Cosart remain. That’s good news as the Phillies get better in 2010 and 2011, while still keeping all their high ceiling talent they’ll need to be good in 2012 and beyond. No matter how you slice it, a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Lee…er…Oswalt looks pretty formidable for the next year +2 months.

So what can we expect from Oswalt? Well, I’d say a 7-4 record with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K’s in 79 IP. The playoffs? Probably a 4-0 record with a 1.56 ERA. Wait, what? Oh, I hadn’t noticed. Those are the exact stats that Cliff Lee put up last year? Interesting. Purely a coincidence, I promise. Ok, I lied, I did that on purpose…but really I expect good things from Roy #2. He’s pitched in big games (he was the 2005 NLCS MVP) and sports a lifetime ERA of 3.24. His K/9 rate is the highest it’s been since his rookie season and he wants to win. Sounds like a guy I want on my side for the stretch run.

To be honest though, I can’t give all the credit to Amaro. Really, he had a lot of help from Ed Wade (unless you believe the report that Astros owner Drayton McLane handled the negotiations directly with David Montgomery, which would be like having two Walrus’s try to decide how much plutonium to put in a bomb, while also fixing our national deficit and figuring out an exit strategy for the Middle East). Trading with Ed Wade is like having your friend buy you a hooker, it’s free and easy sex so you have do it, but it always leaves you feeling dirty and like you ripped him off. So while I can’t blame Amaro for taking advantage of a (PC LANGUAGE ALERT) mentally handicapped person, I still can’t give him full credit. It might not be as easy as taking candy from a baby, but it’s definitely as easy as catching a blowie from a fat chick.

Anyway, this trade puts the Phillies a whole lot closer to a third straight trip to the World Series. Is it a guarantee? Definitely not, but I really like our chances now. The only mini-negative is that we gave up a high-ceiling infielder, something we don’t have much of in our system, and a controllable #5 starter for the next four seasons. But, we won’t miss Gose since we have similar players all over our system in Tyson Gillies, Jiwan James and a host of other ‘toolsy’ outfielders. So as long as Mr. Happ doesn’t develop into Cliff Lee, we’re good. And that has about as much of a chance of happening as me banging a stripper in Vegas during my bachelor party. Which means it would never happen. Cause I don't do that kind of stuff. It's gross. Totally gross.

Go Phils. Let's do it again.

This DL Thing Really Grinds My Gears

Chase Utley and Placido Polanco hit the DL today. That isn't good news. Even with their recent surge, which has them back to within 2.5 games of the Braves, the Phillies have more to worry about now than three weeks ago. Can they survive without Utley and Polanco in the order? Who will step up? Why the hell don't we still have Cliff Lee? Will I work late every day? These are the questions keeping me up at night.

Until Utley meets with a hand specialist in Philadelphia, we won't know how long he'll be out. Hopefully he's back right after the All-Star break. If not we're kinda screwed, unless we bring back Tad Iguchi. As far as Polanco is concerned, well, his head is so big and I still don't understand why. His huge dome-ness aside, he's been this teams most consistent hitter all year so losing him isn't something I take lightly. There is talk the elbow will probably bother him all year and that he'll need surgery in the offseason. Double ugh.

Anyway, unless Howard and Werth both get hot and Ibanez remembers how to hit more than once a week, it looks like the Phillies might need a trade or two to keep them in World Series contention. While all I expect them to add is a bullpen arm, if Happ doesn't come back strong they will need a starter. If Utley is going to miss an extended period of time, they will need a second baseman. And if Polanco can't come back for a while, we would be stuck with Greg Dobbs and Juan Castro as our third basemen. That's about as uninspiring as a Nicolas Cage movie.

So, what should they do? Well, the most important thing is figuring out how long Utlanco will be out. Knowing that will clear a lot of things up. But, to really push for a World Series (which should be the goal) they probably need another very good starter. I'd love to see them make a push for Dan Haren, whose stock has dropped but is signed for a few more years. They'd have to increase payroll to do it, but he'd help through 2012 AND probably wouldn't cost Brown or Cosart due to his subpar year. There have at least been rumblings that Arizona might shop him and if those are true Ruben Amaro better at least give it a shot.

Ultimately though, they probably will aim for someone in the same ilk of a Joe Blanton from a few years ago. So what does that mean? Try these names on for size:

Jeremy Guthrie? Yuck.

Eric Bedard? I'm not even sure he has a shoulder.

Ted Lilly? Reminds me a Cory Lidle, minus being a terrible pilot. (He doesn't remind me of Cory Lidle at all. Lilly is actually pretty good. I just figured no none had made a Cory Lidle joke on this blog. Consider this the first and probably the last.)

Ben Sheets? He'd be on the DL upon arrival, I have no doubt.

There simply isn't much out there (which might be a good thing because the Phillies don't have much to give up anyway). But they are going to do something, they always do.

So, needless to say, it should be a riveting month of July for the Phils. After playing much better during interleague play than we could have hoped for, they sit within stricking distance of first place. If Utley and Polanco come back in mid-July AND Happ comes back strong AND Danys Baez is deported, we stand a good chance of making the playoffs. Shake in some luck and a big time move by Rubes and we got ourselves another champion.

Or Utley misses the rest of the season, Polanco's head explodes, Baez gives up 589 more HRs and we trade for Kevin Millwood. Let's hope for the former.