With a small tweak in assumptions and the inexorable force of compound arithmetic, Citigroup and HSBC have come up with radically different pictures of what the world will look like in 2050. Which of the two is closer to the mark will determine whether the West hangs on, or disappears as a relevant voice in global affairs.
For neo-Spenglerites - who believe the West is finished - Citigroup’s Willem Buiter offers some astonishing projections. The Muslim powerhouse of Indonesia will alone match the combined GDP of Germany, France, Italy, and Britain by mid-century.
The economies of China and India will together be four times as large as the United States, restoring the historic order of Asian dominance before Europe’s navies burst on the scene in the 16th Century. Panta Rei, says Dr Buiter: all is in flux; nothing will remain the same.
Africa will at last emerge from its long string of disappointments to take the baton as the fastest growing region, clocking 7.5pc a year over the next two decades.
It does not require miracles of performance for this to occur. Catch-up countries merely need to keep reforms on track, open markets, “don’t be unlucky, and don’t blow it”, and let convergence theory do the work for them. Read More
